New EUROCONTROL Traffic Scenarios factor in latest COVID impacts on European aviation

“It is clear that the months of February and March will be exceptionally low across the network, except for cargo, some business traffic and skeleton schedule services. Even April is expected to perform very poorly with only a limited pick-up for the Easter period. Flights in Europe will probably only be around 25%-30% of normal. It is a complete disaster for European aviation – an industry that’s already on its knees.

“What remains unclear currently is the situation thereafter. It is reasonable to expect that the epidemiological situation will have improved in many European States by Q2 and that the most vulnerable citizens across Europe will have been vaccinated (despite delays in the roll-out). In turn, this could lead to the possibility for non-essential air travel to become more accessible, which would facilitate a small improvement during Q2, followed by a larger recovery in the summer period. If that’s the case, then we could see levels around -55% of 2019 by June. However, it is also reasonable to expect that, even if the epidemiological situation has improved by Q2, many States may potentially choose not to relax their national travel restrictions, which will severely curtail demand and any possibility for air travel to improve until the summer period at the very earliest. If that’s the case, then we’re still looking at -70% by June."