EUROCONTROL had previously produced Draft Traffic Scenarios on 24 April, based on a “Coordinated Measures Scenario”, which remained highly accurate for April through the end of August and predicted a gradual recovery from -89% in April to -50% in August. This prediction was correct (+/- 1% each month). That scenario had indicated a drop of 45% or 5 million fewer flights. That scenario also assumed that if the trend remained positive, the gradual recovery could potentially continue for the rest of 2020 and assumed a restoration of some inter-continental operations.
However, in response to COVID-19 outbreaks breakouts across Europe since mid-August, States have been imposing individual and uncoordinated national restrictions, quarantine requirements and testing measures, which are primarily in accordance with National epidemiological assessments and National health measures. Often, these measures are announced with very short notice. This ‘uncoordinated approach’ by States has led to much confusion and eroded passenger confidence. Forward bookings for airlines over the coming months are extremely low. By 13 September, traffic was already down 53% for the month compared to the same period in 2019, which was already 13 percentage points lower than EUROCONTROL’s previous prediction of -40% for the full month of September under the previous “Coordinated Measures Scenario”.
Taking all of this into account, the “Current Status Scenario” assumes the likelihood that:
- States remain uncoordinated in their response to cross-border air travel;
- Leisure and business passenger demand remains extremely low as a result of COVID-19 uncertainty, unpredictability and confusion over State restrictions/quarantine measures;
- Airlines will further reduce capacity in response to the collapse in forward bookings; and
- Restoration of inter-continental operations remains very limited.
Total financial loss: Taking all of the above into account, there will potentially be a total industry loss in Europe in revenues of approximately €140 billion during 2020 for airlines, airports and ANSPs, up from €110 billion loss as indicated on 24 April.