This report presents the mid-2012 update of the EUROCONTROL seven-year flight forecast. This update uses the most-recent available traffic statistics and economic forecasts, and more up-to-date information in terms of traffic trends and recent air-industry-related events.
Over the Summer months, European traffic has been quite close to the last forecast published. Nevertheless, very high oil prices, a weaker economic outlook and other recent events (airlines failures, slower-than-expected recovery from the Arab Spring) have all led to a downwards revision of the forecast over all.
The forecast update is for 1.5% fewer flights in 2012 and a stagnation in 2013, due to the factors mentioned above, marking a double-dip after the first plunge in 2008/09. By 2018, the forecast anticipates 11.1 million IFR movements in Europe1, just 14% more than in 2011. From 2014, the growth returns but slower compared to pre-2008 average growth rates. Growth averages 1.9% per year for the whole 2012-18 period.