Seven-year Forecast of Flight Movements - December 2011

The Statistics and Forecast Service (STATFOR) of EUROCONTROL produces a short-term (two years) forecast of IFR flights in Europe.

This is published four times per year: independently in May and December, and as an integral part of the medium-term forecast in February and September. 

This update of the flight forecast uses the improved method that was first put into operation in February 2009 and enhanced in February 2010.

This method is outlined in Annex B. For the current forecast, a number of adaptations according to the recent traffic evolution around the area were necessary to allow the local North African effects to be modeled. Reporting of the forecast for this summary report remains focused on the main flows for each State, and for the EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area (ESRA08).

The ESRA081 represents the whole of Europe. It is a large, stable subset of the Member States used for comparison purposes since 2009. In the remainder of this document:

  • Section 2 looks at what has changed since the last forecast, and what this says about trends in growth.
  • Section 3 summarizes the forecast for 2011.
  • Section 4 outlines the forecast for 2012 and 2013. The next short-term forecast will be published at the end of February 2012 as part of the medium-term forecast update.


EUROCONTROL Seven-Year Forecast for 2011-2013