Long-term Forecast of Annual Numbers of IFR Flights up to 2040

Challenges of growth 2018 - Annex 1

This report is part of the fifth Challenges of Growth study, which aims to deliver the best-achievable information to support long-term planning decisions for aviation in Europe. It is the first annex to the summary report “European Aviation in 2040” presenting the update of the EUROCONTROL 20-year forecast of IFR flight movements in Europe up to 2040.

Looking twenty or more years ahead, it is more robust to consider not just a single forecast, but a range of potential scenarios for how air transport in Europe, and the factors influencing it, might develop.

This forecast uses four scenarios to explore the future of the aviation and the risks that lie ahead: Global Growth, Regulation and Growth (most-likely), Happy Localism and Fragmenting World. Each scenario has different input assumptions: economic growth, fuel prices, load factors, hub-and-spoke versus point-to-point etc. This leads to different volumes of traffic, and different underlying patterns of growth: long- versus short-haul, rates of up-gauging of aircraft, etc.

Learn more in the full report.


Challenges of Growth - Annex 1 - Flight Forecast to 2040