Long-term Forecast of Annual Numbers of IFR Flights up to 2035

Challenges of growth 2013 - Task 4

This report presents the EUROCONTROL Long-Term Forecast of IFR traffic in Europe to 2035. 

This report presents the 2013 update of the EUROCONTROL 20-year forecast of IFR flight movements in Europe up to 2035. It focuses on developments after 2019; traffic evolution between now and 2019 is discussed in the EUROCONTROL 7-year forecast published in February 2013 (Ref. 5). This forecast replaces the EUROCONTROL Long-Term Forecast issued in December 2010, and was prepared as a task of Challenges of Growth 2013.

Looking 20 or more years ahead, it is more robust to consider not just a single forecast, but a range of potential scenarios for how air transport in Europe, and the factors influencing it, might develop. This forecast uses four scenarios to explore the future of the aviation and the risks that lie ahead:

  • scenario A: Global Growth;
  • scenario C: Regulated Growth (most-likely);
  • scenario C’: Happy Localism;
  • scenario D: Fragmenting World.

Each scenario has different input assumptions: economic growth, fuel prices, load factors, hub-andspoke versus point-to-point etc. This leads to different volumes of traffic, and different underlying patterns of growth: long- versus short-haul, rates of up-gauging of aircraft etc.

Learn more in the full forecast.


Challenges of Growth - Task 4 - European Air Traffic 2035