Long-term Forecast of Annual Numbers of IFR Flights up to 2030

This report presents the EUROCONTROL Long-Term Forecast of IFR traffic in Europe to 2030. 

This forecast focuses on the developments between 2015 and 2030; the traffic between 2008 and 2014 is discussed in our February 2008 forecast. The forecast has been prepared as part of the Challenges of Growth 2008 project. This forecast replaces the Long-Term Forecast issued in December 2006. The EUROCONTROL Long-Term Forecast will next be reviewed in 2010.

The forecast uses four scenarios to capture the possible futures for the aviation industry. Any user of the forecast is strongly advised to consider all four scenarios as a means to manage risk. There are also a number of other important risks which the forecast has not included. In particular, the possibility of changes to the routing of traffic, major external events and delays in projects for network improvements.

The forecast is for between 16.5 and 22.1 million IFR flight movements in the EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area (ESRA) in 2030, between 1.7 and 2.2 times the traffic in 2007. This is an average growth of 2.3%-3.5% per year. The growth will be distributed unevenly in time and across regions.


EUROCONTROL Long-Term Forecast Flight Movements 2008-2030