EUROCONTROL Think Paper #22 - Decarbonising long-haul flights by 2050

Is there a pathway through sustainable aviation fuel use, fleet renewal and green energy upscaling?
Think Paper issue #22 - cover
Think Paper #22 - banner

Long-haul flights, accounting for fewer than 10% of all departures, are responsible for over 50% of aviation's carbon emissions.

While electric and hydrogen aircraft are progressing as solutions for short-haul travel, they remain unviable for long-haul operations.

Utilising our new FlyingGreen platform’s FuellingDecarb module, we estimate the feasibility of producing sufficient sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) to meet ReFuelEU’s blending mandate for long-haul flights, as well as the volume of electricity necessary to generate the required SAF.

We also look at the potential for optimising the availability of SAF at airports, and the role that fleet renewal could have in accelerating the decarbonisation of long-haul flights.

Our findings indicate that:

  • producing the required SAF and co-products for those long-haul flights would require an important upscaling of green/clean energy
  • initially centralising SAF supplies at key airports with predominantly long-haul traffic could enhance efficiency, reduce infrastructure investments, and maximise environmental benefits (CO2 emissions, local air quality, and non-CO2, including contrail reduction), as well as ease the transition to deploying SAF at all European airports
  • replacing aircraft older than 10 years could reduce the carbon emissions of the long-haul fleet by approximately 10%, also diminishing their SAF requirements
  • significant synergies with other transport sectors could expedite SAF production: as road transport moves towards electrification, a substantial portion of the EU’s biofuel capacity could shift to aviation, also supporting maritime needs.

"Achieving net zero by 2050 is a considerable challenge for aviation but, as this paper argues, there is considerable scope to advance on net zero goals. Sustainable aviation fuel, expanding green energy production, and replacing older aircraft with newer, fuel-efficient models represent a powerful combination for medium to long-term emissions reductions. I invite you to explore our FlyingGreen platform, one of the key deliverables of EUROCONTROL’s Raising The Bar programme, which helps aviation actors evaluate the challenges ahead, and measure progress being made towards scaling the availability of sustainable aviation fuel.”

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EUROCONTROL Think Paper #22