Using the very latest EUROCONTROL aviation data, our latest Think Paper, the 16th in a series of thought-provoking studies, provides an in-depth assessment. Our analysis is aligned with the planned policy proposals associated with the EU Green Deal as well as other initiatives from across Europe. The estimates are based on the three traffic scenarios – High, Base and Low – published in our recent EUROCONTROL Aviation Outlook 2050.
We demonstrate that a 55% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 is achievable in all three scenarios, but its success is heavily reliant on Market Based Measures, mainly via the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), which will make an 83% contribution to the net reduction.
On the policy side, we assess the impact and the extra cost of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) uptake, the impact of ramping up kerosene taxes, and the phasing out of free emissions allowances. We estimate that the cumulative extra cost to the aviation industry over the period 2022-2030 of these decarbonisation measures will amount to €62 billion, comprising:
- €29 billion in extra tax costs on kerosene (applied to intra-EEA flights);
- €23 billion in extra ETS costs (applied to EU + UK + Switzerland;
- €10 billion in extra fuel mix costs (applied to all-ECAC based on a 5% SAF / 95% kerosene mix).
The extra cost to the airline industry in 2030 alone is estimated at €14 billion.
However, we find that industry-driven measures are capable of playing a big part in achieving the required net emissions savings and offsetting the extra costs of decarbonisation. The positive impact of measures such as the implementation of the Single European Sky, other operational improvements and accelerated fleet renewal could drastically reduce the extra cost by €33 billion over the same period, lowering the cumulative cost to the industry to €29 billion.