Since the February 2025 forecast, European flight numbers have been overall aligned with the base scenario. Locally, there have been significant changes in overflights in certain central and north-western European states, driven by variations in unit rates, fewer airspace capacity constraints, and the impact on the network of various ongoing conflicts.
Key data:
- For 2025, the expected number of flights in the ECAC (European Civil Aviation Conference) area is 11.0 million, reflecting growth of 3.6% (±0.6pp) compared to 2024 (99% of 2019 levels). This is broadly in line with the February 2025 traffic forecast at European level. States in south-west and south-east Europe are experiencing the highest growth rates.
- For 2026, traffic is expected to grow by 3.1% (±1.7pp) to reach 11.4 million flights. This reflects the 2025 outturn, sustained growth expected for winter 2025/26, and a resilient economic outlook. Annual traffic should return to pre-pandemic levels at European level, but with notable variations at State level. This is an upward revision compared to the February 2025 forecast publication.
Average annual flight growth is expected to be +2.2% (±1.6pp) for the period 2025-2031, reaching 12.4 million flights at the end of the horizon in the base scenario. This represents a slight upward revision from the February 2025 forecast. For the States involved in the SES Performance Scheme, flight growth has been revised upwards to 2.5% annually (±1.6pp) between 2025 and 2029 (RP4).
EUROCONTROL’s forecasts are prepared on a regular basis by the STATFOR team within EUROCONTROL’s Aviation Intelligence Unit. The next forecast update is expected in Spring 2026.
Users of this forecast are as ever strongly advised to consider the forecast range (low to high) as a tool to manage business risks. This forecast is subject to various uncertainties, including potential geopolitical disruptions, economic shocks, and ongoing challenges in the aviation industry.