Since March 2023, flights at European level have evolved largely as anticipated in our monthly base scenario, although there has been a slight fall-off since June.
The number of European flights in 2023 and 2024 has been slightly revised downwards, reflecting a slight decrease in traffic compared to our previous base scenario for Summer 2023, and lower expected economic growth for 2024 and 2025.
We still expect to reach 2019 flight levels (11.1 million) in 2025. After 2025, flight growth is expected to average 1.6% per year in our base forecast, owing to greater uncertainties within the 7-year horizon (higher inflation, pressure on oil prices, economic risks, environmental concerns, etc.). In our low forecast, a number of downside risks result in the number of flights stagnating from 2025 onwards.
Users of our forecasts are strongly advised to use the forecast range. Moreover, uncertainties surrounding further deterioration of the economy, escalation of geopolitical tensions or other unpredictable events may have a negative impact on traffic.