EUROCONTROL Forecast Update 2023-2029

Spring 2023
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This Spring 2023 forecast is an update of the previously published 7-year forecast in Autumn 2022.

Since October 2022, flight movements in Europe have developed in line with the base scenario.

This forecast is the first publication post COVID-19 with all forecasting modules reconnected: the low-to-high values now refer to a forecast range (statistical uncertainty) rather than scenarios.

The number of European flights in 2023 and 2024 has been slightly revised upwards due to the continuation of vivid pent-up demand (solid bookings, strong tourist flows in Southern Europe).

We expect to reach 2019 flight levels (11.1 million) in 2025. After 2025, flight growth is expected to average 1.5% per year in the base forecast, owing to the greater uncertainties within the 7-year horizon (higher inflation, pressure on oil prices, environmental concerns…). As downside risks prevail, the number of flights in the low forecast stagnates from 2025 onwards.

Users of the forecasts are strongly advised to use the forecast range. Moreover, uncertainties surrounding further deterioration of the economy, possible escalation of the geopolitical tensions or other unpredictable events (e.g. natural disasters) may have a negative impact on this forecast.


EUROCONTROL Seven-Year Forecast 2023-2029 - Spring 2023 Update
EUROCONTROL Seven-Year Forecast 2023-2029: Region definition
EUROCONTROL Seven-Year Forecast 2023-2029: Annex tables