This updated 7‑year traffic forecast carries significantly higher uncertainty than usual, given the impact of the rapidly evolving crisis in the Middle East - particularly in the Gulf region - on aviation. To prepare it, we have adjusted our initial analyses conducted before the outbreak of hostilities and incorporated, as far as possible, the potential effects on demand to and from Middle Eastern hubs and neighbouring countries, as well as the associated rerouting impacts.
Key data:
- In Europe, 2025 closed 4% above 2024, reaching 100% of 2019 traffic levels with an average of 30,263 daily flights, returning to pre-pandemic volumes at 11.05 million flights. The October 2025 forecast proved to be slightly below the actual 2025 outturn, mainly due to stronger‑than‑expected traffic growth in southern and eastern Europe, as well as robust beyond‑ECAC flows.
- For 2026, traffic had been expected to grow at rates close to those of 2025, supported by a stronger economic outlook and positive expectations from aircraft operators - particularly low‑cost carriers. However, following the escalation of the Middle East crisis at the end of February, our forecast has been revised downward. Traffic in the ECAC area is now expected to reach around 11.3 million flights for the year, corresponding to +2.7% growth compared with 2025 (±1.8pp). This revision reflects increased geopolitical uncertainty, weaker demand assumptions, and operational disruptions, all of which are partly offset by still‑solid underlying traffic momentum.
Over the period 2026-2032, average annual growth is expected to reach around +2.1%, resulting in approximately 12.8 million flights a year by 2032. This reflects a similar medium-term outlook compared to pre-crisis expectations.
EUROCONTROL’s forecasts are prepared on a regular basis by the STATFOR team within EUROCONTROL’s Aviation Intelligence Unit. The next forecast update is expected in Autumn 2026.
Users are strongly encouraged to consider the full forecast range (low–base–high), given the exceptionally high uncertainty linked to geopolitical risks, macroeconomic volatility, and energy market instability.