In the most likely scenario, there will be 15.4 million flights in Europe (ECAC) in 2050, representing an increase of 52% compared to 2023, with an average growth rate of +1.6% per year. High and low scenarios results (18 million flights and 12.2 million flights by 2050) are also presented. Flight growth in Europe will be 14 years behind compared to flight growth in the long-term forecast published prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the current slowdown we still forecast significant growth, and we still expect it to be challenging. In particular, demand will exceed the capacity of key airports resulting in a ‘capacity gap’ of 1.1 million flights (base scenario).
| ECAC | IFR Movements | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2023 | 2050 | Total growth 2050/2023 | AAGR 2024-2050 | Total growth 2050/2019 | AAGR 2020-2050 | |||||
| Total* | Avg. daily** | Total* | Avg. daily** | Total* | Avg. daily** | Extra flights/day** | |||||
| High | 11.1 | 30.4 | 10.1 | 27.8 | 18.0 | 49.4 | 5.9 | +78% | +2.2% | +63% | +1.6% |
| Base | 15.4 | 42.1 | 0.9 | +52% | +1.6% | +39% | +1,1% | ||||
| Low | 12.2 | 33.5 | 0.9 | +20% | +0.7% | +10% | +0.3% | ||||
*million
**thousands
We forecast that a small minority of flights (those exceeding 4,000 km) will continue to account for approximately half of CO2 emissions. In all scenarios, the share of long-haul flights is expected to increase by 2050. Sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) will be crucial in reducing emissions from these long-haul flights.
In order to achieve the most sustainable outcomes, the aviation industry will need to work with governments to ensure that the right investments and suitable regulations are being made, within aviation and beyond.