EUROCONTROL Forecast 2024-2030

Update - Spring 2024
Seven-year forecast 2024-2030 - banner

This seven-year forecast edition (Spring 2024) builds upon the Autumn 2023 publication and incorporates the latest flight trends, including a comprehensive update of the forecast inputs.

Despite a strong Summer 2023, the number of European flights showed lower-than-expected volumes since November 2023 — with local disparities between Eastern and Western States. In addition, there has been a downwards revision in the economic forecasts for 2024 at the European level. As a result, the flight forecast has been revised slightly downwards until 2027.

At ECAC* level, the number of flights is likely to reach 10.6 million in 2024, reflecting growth of 4.9% (±2.3pp) compared to 2023, and accounting for 96% of 2019 levels. This trend is expected to continue, with an increase to 10.9 million (99%) in 2025, and further to 11.2 million (101%) by 2026. On a monthly basis, for ECAC*, the number of flights is likely to reach the 2019 levels during Summer 2025.

Beyond 2025, flight growth is expected to average 2.0%/year (±1.4pp), rising to over 12 million flights in 2030.

This forecast is subject to various uncertainties, such as geopolitical events, economic shocks, and ongoing challenges in the aviation industry and users are strongly advised to consider the low-to-high range of forecast values for their plans.

Files

EUROCONTROL Seven-Year Forecast 2024-2030 - Spring 2024 Update
EUROCONTROL Seven-Year Forecast 2024-2030: Region definition
EUROCONTROL Seven-Year Forecast 2024-2030: Annex tables