Challenges of growth 2018

European aviation in 2040
Challenges of growth - European aviation in 2040 - summary report
Challenges of growth

The report aims to provide decision-makers with the best-achievable set of information to support long-term planning decisions for aviation in Europe, with a particular focus on the capacity of the air transport network. Previous studies were completed in 2001, 2004, 2008 and 2013.

In this edition, we also look at the impact of climate change and the expected rise in unmanned aircraft systems, or drones. Traffic variability over the last ten years shows that we have to consider a range of possible futures in order to manage risk: no one single forecast could hope to include all the likely risks.

After a stakeholder review, four scenarios were selected and studied for this release of the Challenges of Growth. General consensus is that the most likely is the one labelled “Regulation and Growth”, which sees moderate growth regulated to reconcile demand with environmental sustainability issues.

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The Summary report brings together the challenges that have been highlighted by four annexes.

Annex 1 on Flight Forecast to 2040 explores what aviation might look like in 2040 and what the challenges might be from this new 20-year forecast.

Annex 2 on Adapting aviation to a changing climate looks at how aviation can be impacted by climate change and shows that the European aviation industry increasingly recognises that these challenges are coming.

Annex 3 on Mitigation measures aims to deliver the best-achievable information to support long-term planning decisions for aviation in Europe and looks at ways to mitigate the lack of capacity, starting with building more airport capacity, but also looking at how to use differently the capacity that is available.

Annex 4 on Network congestion looks at the impact of the expected 16.2-20 million extra flights by 2040 on the network.


European aviation in 2040 - Challenges of Growth summary report
Challenges of Growth - Annex 1 - Flight Forecast to 2040
Challenges of Growth - Annex 2 - Adapting aviation to a changing climate
Challenges of Growth - Annex 3: Mitigation measures
Challenges of Growth - Annex 4 Network Congestion