Background to the Challenges of Growth studies - The dual aim behind the Challenges of Growth studies is to deliver the best-achievable information to support long-term planning in Europe and to raise awareness of the scale of future needs if aviation is to meet demand. Traffic variability over the last ten years shows that we have to consider a range of possible futures in order to manage risk: no one single forecast could hope to include all the likely risks.
After a stakeholder review, four scenarios were selected and studied for this release of the Challenges of Growth. General consensus is that the most likely is the one labelled “Regulation and Growth”, which sees moderate growth regulated to reconcile demand with environmental sustainability issues.
EUROCONTROL, the European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation, has as its primary objective to develop a seamless, pan-European air traffic management (ATM) system that fully copes with the growth in air traffic, while maintaining a high level of safety, reducing costs and respecting the environment. EUROCONTROL has 41 Member States: Albania, Armenia, Austria, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, The Republic of North Macedonia, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. EUROCONTROL has Comprehensive Agreements with the Kingdom of Morocco and the State of Israel.
ACI EUROPE represents over 500 airports in 45 European countries. Their members facilitate over 90% of commercial air traffic in Europe: 2 billion passengers, 20 million tonnes of freight and 23.7 million aircraft movements in 2016. These airports contribute to the employment of 12.3 million people, generating €675 billion each year – 4.1% of GDP in Europe. Based in Brussels, ACI EUROPE leads and serves the European airport industry and maintains strong links with other Airport Council International regions throughout the world.
The Challenges of Growth project team was helped by many in the aviation industry who supported the project by providing information and informed comments. In particular, DG MOVE and ACI EUROPE provided expert encouragement and advice. The STATFOR User Group helped review and refine the scenarios.