EUROCONTROL Aviation Long Term Outlook expects aviation to reach 15.4 million flights in 2050, +39% vs. 2019 levels and shows that the pathway to net-zero by 2050 will remain challenging.

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In the most-likely scenario, some 15.4 million flights are forecast in the European Civil Aviation Conference Area (ECAC) by 2050; this is 52% more than in 2023 (39% more than in 2019) equivalent to an average annual growth of 1.6% over the 2023-2050 period (1.1% over 2019-2050). The growing constraints at some major airports, operating near or at their maximum capacity by 2050, will continue to put pressure on the entire network.

To achieve the challenging objective of net-zero CO₂ emissions by 2050, this outlook describes the main enablers. As far as fleet and technology improvements are concerned, the pace of fleet renewal with more fuel-efficient aircraft will be key – as well as the development and effective use of electric and hydrogen-powered aircraft. In turn, operations and infrastructure have a role to play including innovation at airports and ATM infrastructures through SESAR solutions, as well as improved efficiencies in coordination between all operational stakeholders. Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) are another promising solution; here, the scaling up of production to meet demand and the evolution of the price of SAFs will be critical, as their availability is currently limited and costly. Finally, what cannot be handled by the above to reach net-zero will have to be covered by out-of-sector measures such as market-based measures, carbon offsetting and capture, the integrity and effectiveness of which will be critical to ensuring that they genuinely reduce emissions.

Without any significant measures, we forecast that ECAC flights will emit 271 Mt CO₂ by 2050 (if there is no fleet renewal, the forecast is for 294 Mt CO₂).

To get to the net-zero target, the key sustainability factors identified would require savings:

• 53 Mt (20% of the total carbon emissions in 2050) from fleet and technology,
• 27 Mt (10%) from operations and infrastructures (including innovation in ATM),
• 90 Mt (33%) from Sustainability Aviation Fuels (SAF).

And the remaining gap to net-zero (101 Mt or 37%) would have to be covered by out-of-sector measures (such as market-based measures, carbon off-setting and carbon capture).