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EUROCONTROL predicts growth in aviation traffic over next 8 months

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The latest EUROCONTROL Traffic Scenarios for the period December 2022 to August 2023 predict steady growth, reaching 95% of 2019 traffic by August in our Base Scenario

These monthly scenarios update those produced in April 2022 and reflect the 2022-2028 seven-year forecast made in October, which included a base forecast for 2023 of 92% of 2019 traffic (10.2 million flights).

In recent months we have seen that many airlines have tended to be optimistic in their traffic predictions, even on a relatively short-term basis, with actual traffic turning out to be below their expectations. Overall, traffic has stayed below the base scenario produced in April since the start of the Winter season.

Looking forward, while the recovery is expected to continue, the market is clearly cautious and this is reflected in these latest scenarios. While the base scenario for June-August 2023 is for between 94% and 95% of 2019 levels, there remain downside risks, particularly relating to the economy, fuel prices and staff shortages/industrial relations.

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