Forecasting

We regularly publish reports, plans and forecasts highlighting air transport statistics and trends. Our comprehensive assessments provide an analysis of traffic flows, market segments, oil prices, aviation sustainability and the impacts of the latest developments in Europe. We usually publish them on a bi-weekly basis and use 2019 as base year to point out the ongoing effects of COVID-19 on the air traffic situation.

Our medium-term forecast gives a comprehensive picture of anticipated air traffic development in Europe, generally for the next seven years but the horizon can vary (i.e. shorter) according to external elements (e.g. COVID-19 outbreak). It combines flight statistics with economic growth and models of other industry drivers, including costs, airport capacity, passengers, load factors and aircraft size. Using high- and low-growth scenarios, a likely range for growth is presented, to help planners manage risks. We publish it biannually, covering flights, en-route and terminal service units.

Our 30-year forecast presents possible scenarios on how the air traffic industry might look in 30 years and, for the first time, includes estimates of net CO₂ emissions. This allows a range of ‘what if?’ questions to be explored, for factors inside the industry (e.g. the growth of business aviation, or of point-to-point traffic) or outside (e.g. the price of oil, or environmental constraints). Long-term forecasts are published approximately every two years.