Article

We are making steady progress to achieving net zero by 2050

Jane Hupe

Jane Hupe is the ICAO Director responsible for the Environment programme at the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and served as Secretary of ICAO’s Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (CAEP) from 1998 to 2025.

The 41st ICAO Assembly adopted a Long-Term Global Aspirational Goal (LTAG) for international aviation of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 – are we on track to meet this target?

We are making significant and steady progress toward achieving LTAG, that’s for sure. Cleaner energy is among the most important factors in reducing aviation’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. During the third ICAO Conference on Alternative Aviation Fuels (CAAF/3), held in Dubai in November 2023 – one year after the 41st Session of the Assembly – ICAO Member States adopted a crucial Global Framework for Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF), Lower Carbon Aviation Fuels (LCAF) and other clean energy. All agreed on a specific objective to reduce CO2 emissions from international aviation by 5% by 2030 though the use of aviation cleaner energy, which is a critical part of the path to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Adoption of an LTAG for international aviation of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 in support of the UNFCCC Paris Agreement's temperature goal, a historic agreement that reinforces the leadership of ICAO on issues relating to international aviation and climate change. From left to right: Ms Jane Hupe, Mr Juan Carlos Salazar, Ms Poppy Khoza, Mr Salvatore Sciacchitano, Mr Mohamed Khalifa Rahma

This serves as an intermediate goal towards the LTAG, promoting the scale-up of the development of cleaner energies for aviation. Also, the agreed ICAO global framework sends a clear signal to the public, the private sector and fuel producers about the opportunities they have to fully support and unlock the potential of the sector’s energy transition.

Following the CAAF/3 decision, ICAO developed a comprehensive roadmap built on four key building blocks: policy and planning, regulatory frameworks, implementation support and financing. Notable achievements have already been made to implement the roadmap, including the increased deployment of SAF, LCAF and other cleaner energy sources – progress that is reflected through the ICAO Cleaner Energy Tracker Tools available on the ICAO Environment website. In parallel, advancements in technological innovation and strong international cooperation also play a central role. One such example of international collaboration is the ICAO Finvest Hub initiative. This matchmaking platform aims to connect aviation decarbonisation projects with financiers and investors worldwide, helping to unlock dedicated funding pathways for SAF production facilities, cleaner energy infrastructure and other aviation decarbonisation projects. Furthermore, ICAO is developing a robust methodology for monitoring progress towards the LTAG, as proposed by CAEP. This methodology will soon be submitted to the ICAO Council for approval. Our ultimate goal is to enable the measurement of the LTAG progress with the same level of robustness currently applied to the monitoring and reporting system under the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA).

With all these elements in place, we are delivering a complete and actionable package to support the global decarbonisation of international aviation. So going back to your original question, “Are we on track?” I would say “yes,” we now have a substantial basis for scaling up, and we are moving fast.

"We need a level playing field, and we have the technology, the knowledge and the financing available to decouple aviation emissions from its growth."

There is a tipping point, perhaps, where we start to see a clear decoupling of traffic and emissions. Are we there yet?

There is certainly potential. However, we are a global system and need everyone to agree and move forward in unison. We already have many examples of how this can be achieved, but now we need to implement them. During CAAF/3, one of the major issues discussed was the need for global harmonisation to support global implementation, while allowing States and regions taking different paths to accommodate circumstances and capabilities.

We need a level playing field, and we have the technology, the knowledge and the financing available to decouple aviation emissions from its growth. Successful examples are already in place. By adopting the ICAO global framework, it is now a matter of prioritisation and acceleration.

We need the collective will to act, through implementation, investment and prioritisation of aviation sustainability at every level. As a global system, aviation can only succeed if all players move together. No country can achieve this alone.

Aligning the action of States with the ICAO Global Framework will not only prevent fragmentation, but also ensure a level playing field, allowing all States, regardless of their development status, to participate fully in the aviation energy transition. Moving forward means advancing SAF, investing in clean energy infrastructure and establishing supportive policies. With the right priorities and strong cross-sector collaboration, international aviation can successfully decouple emissions from its growth.

Do you believe there are misconceptions about the industry’s progress in general and the work of ICAO in particular in moving towards net zero which need clarification?

ICAO is a highly technical and specialised Organization for international aviation, and sometimes the volume, quality and importance of the work may be overlooked. For example, we have been working on Sustainable Aviation Fuels since 2007, and yet there is still a misconception that SAF competes with food production. The Organization has invested considerable efforts to ensure that SAF does not interfere with food security including ICAO’s strict sustainability criteria for SAF to ensure that only fuels based on non-competing feedstocks are considered eligible.

However, there remains a knowledge gap about the work we’ve done, the decisions made and the robustness of the technical work by the ICAO Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection in all environmental areas, in collaboration with worldwide experts from States, industry, civil society and other United Nations bodies. There is still limited awareness of ICAO’s efforts, the decisions adopted by Member States and the robustness of CAEP’s work. We need to address this knowledge gap to enhance the recognition of aviation’s sustainability progress and the potential to meet the 2050 net-zero goal.

ICAO has a leadership role in shaping the global environmental agenda as the UN specialised agency on international aviation. This leadership is reflected in various key initiatives and technical developments driven by the Organization. While this work is critical, there is a growing need for greater outreach to the public, other UN bodies and other sectors to bridge the knowledge gap. Communicating the scale, quality and importance of ICAO’s efforts can help foster broader recognition and engagement.

What role can air traffic management play in this process over the next five years?

As part of the ICAO basket of measures, air traffic management (ATM) will play a crucial role in reducing aviation emissions. We need to make flights more efficient by improving coordination between air navigation service providers (ANSPs) and making routes more direct wherever possible. There is also great potential in adopting new technologies such as digital towers, AI-driven traffic flow management and performance-based navigation techniques. These innovations, including continuous climb and descent operations, help aircraft fly more efficiently, which reduces delays and fuel burn, ultimately lowering emissions.

Cross-border airspace management improvements are another critical area. Given the current political climate, we are concerned about further fragmentation of airspace, and this is something that will require significant attention.

There are already excellent examples of how better ATM can reduce emissions. The Single European Sky ATM Research (SESAR) project in Europe, NextGen in the USA and the ASPIRE initiative in Asia/Pacific have all made great strides. For instance, SESAR’s Free-Route Airspace allows aircraft to take more direct paths instead of following fixed airways, saving fuel. ASPIRE has also been highly successful in optimising routes and improving decision-making across the region.

Operational improvements in ATM are often considered low-hanging fruit – measures that are relatively easy to implement but can deliver significant, immediate results in reducing emissions. At ICAO, the CAEP Working Group 2, which focuses on airports and operations, plays a key role in developing strategies, policies and guidance materials related to ATM. A crucial strength of this Group’s work is its ability to bring together key stakeholders – ANSPs, airlines, airport operators and industry leaders – to discuss not only implementation but also the methods for monitoring effectiveness. Consistent and harmonised monitoring is vital for measuring progress. Without it, progress would be difficult to quantify. Harmonising methodologies ensures that improvements can be tracked and integrated into ICAO’s Global Air Navigation Plan, supporting the goal of decarbonising aviation.

Have there been any recent technology improvements – battery power, hydrogen as a fuel, SAF production – that give you cause for optimism?

The aviation sector is seeing many exciting technological developments, particularly with battery power, hydrogen and SAF. However, battery technology is not yet mature enough to support transatlantic flights. Hydrogen, while holding immense potential to bring aviation closer to net zero, still faces significant challenges before it can become commercially viable at scale.

In the near term, the most significant emission reductions will likely come from innovations in SAF. New technologies like alcohol-to-jet (AtJ) and pyrolysisbased pathways show considerable promise. These developments are especially important for developing countries, as they enable greater global participation and adoption of SAF. The more processes, pathways and feedstocks that are certified, the more we can reduce lifecycle emissions. This is crucial for decoupling emissions from aviation growth.

The industry is working towards the goal of 100% SAF use, which could significantly increase our emissionsreduction capabilities. While the next breakthroughs in aircraft design and hydrogen technology are eagerly anticipated, SAF innovations will likely play the biggest role in the short-term decarbonisation of aviation.

How can we best achieve a balance of environmental protection measures that address reducing noise, emissions and air-quality pollutants at all levels, at the same time?

ICAO’s Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection works with nearly 1,000 of the best experts in aviation sustainability, with workstreams dedicated to noise, air quality, CO2 emissions, market-based measures, cleaner energy and more. CAEP’s Terms of Reference ensure that solutions are technically feasible, environmentally beneficial and economically reasonable.

We consider the interdependencies of measures when developing standards. For instance, before adopting a new CO2 standard, we assess its impact on noise and air quality. This approach led to the introduction of the “dual stringency analysis” which evaluates two environmental impacts simultaneously – such as noise and CO2 – ensuring that progress in one area does not undermine progress in another. This approach led to new standards for CO2 and Noise being recommended by the CAEP/13 meeting in February 2025.

Cleaner energy technologies are also showing benefits in reducing local air-quality pollutants. Certain fuels under consideration, for example, have the potential to reduce the levels of aromatics in emissions, which have been a significant concern.

ICAO’s balanced approach to aircraft noise management is a key example of how we can address noise issues holistically. What sets this approach apart is its inclusion of the local community, taking into account how individuals perceive airport noise. Understanding and integrating the human factor is crucial to achieving meaningful, community-accepted outcomes.

As new aircraft technologies emerge, such as supersonic airliners designed to eliminate the sonic boom and blended-wing body designs, public acceptability will be vital. The public’s priorities and concerns must be taken into consideration to ensure these new aircraft types are integrated into society in a way that aligns with sustainability goals. After all, aviation is here to serve the needs of the public and this includes addressing the social impacts of noise.

Looking forward, with advancements in AI and other technologies, the development cycle for these new aircraft types could be shortened. This opens exciting possibilities for the future of aviation – one that balances environmental protection, technological innovation and societal acceptance.

Is there still the political will of States to commit to long-term reductions in aviation-related emissions?

Yes, the political will remains strong. Even though economic challenges can make the path forward tougher, the commitment among Member States is robust. This is clearly demonstrated by their continued support for key global initiatives, including the implementation of CORSIA, the ICAO Global Framework for Sustainable Aviation Fuels, Lower Carbon Aviation Fuels (LCAF) and other clean energy, and the roadmap toward Net Zero by 2050.

Despite the complexities and uncertainties arising from economic and geopolitical factors, we are witnessing unprecedented progress in SAF development and adoption, driven by the political will of Member States. The cooperation among States, the aviation industry and other stakeholders has been particularly evident in their commitment to scaling up SAF production and use.

ICAO continues to monitor this progress, using tools like the Cleaner Energies Tracker and financial matchmaking platforms like the ICAO Finvest Hub to connect aviation sustainability projects with investors. This global cooperation speaks volumes about the dedication to decarbonising the aviation sector. It is clear that, despite the challenges, the political will to reduce aviation emissions remains steadfast, and the momentum toward achieving Net Zero by 2050 is strong.

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