Preparing for Summer 2024: more traffic, disruptive weather but deeper and more effective collaboration

“We saw 7% more traffic but delays per flight were reduced by 18%, not counting weather-related issues. It was the first time the Network Manager had adopted a Joint Approach with C-level representatives of airports, air navigation service providers (ANSPs), airlines and other stakeholders all in the same room. We agreed to focus on four main actions: prioritising the first rotation; disciplined flight plan execution; delivering agreed capacities and taking a realistic approach to scheduling, including turnround times.”

Each action brought its own reward. Prioritising the first rotation brought a 20.4% reduction of first-wave delays in 2023 over 2022; research has shown that a delay of one minute in the first take-off of the day can result in a four-minute delay in the final rotation of the day. Sticking closely to the flight plan reduced unplanned entries into regulated airspace by 7% over the previous year. Delivering agreed capacities delivered a reduction of 6.7% of departure delays as a result of en-route ATFM delays. Realistic scheduling – replacing “hoped-for” with “most probable” turnround times – meant aircraft operators reduced their turnround time excesses by 17.5% over 2022. If an airline schedules an inbound flight to arrive at 1500 and the outbound flight to leave at 1510 that can create major network challenges.

“The campaign brought another benefit,” said Steven Moore. “We saw that with all stakeholders working together more closely there was a change in view of how they saw the network. Of course, they continued to prioritise the needs of their own organisation but they could also see the network impact of their decisions. So asking for a short cut, for example, had two impacts on the network: it meant the aircraft was in the wrong place at wrong time, but with the aircraft no longer flying the planned route it meant the planned-for airspace capacity was not being optimally used. Last summer 8% of flights deviated from their flight plan into a regulated area. That’s something we really need to look into. We saw major improvements in 2023 but it was still not good enough.

“Our role is to give more information to the coordinators so they can make more effective decisions based on their commercial priorities and operational possibilities. But this new approach has made a real difference because if an airline has signed up to more disciplined flight plan execution, even if it is running later than planned, keeping the flight plan up to date and not asking for that short cut will have an important effect on the performance of the overall network.”

For 2024, the Joint Approach plan is being refined even further. Now stakeholders have agreed to work towards measurable objectives, perhaps by reducing first-wave delays by an agreed percentage over last year’s performance for example. And a fifth action has been added to the list: improved planning for weather disruptions.

“Weather is one of the main capacity constraints in our network, as it is difficult to manage because it less predictable and more dynamic,“ she added. “But we want to introduce a collaborative decision-making procedure, to decide and agree with all stakeholders how to manage the movement of traffic around disruptive weather areas. This means developing a kind of re-routing playbook which can be applied in bad weather. And we also want to have a single, more precise and continuous network forecast. At the moment this data is provided only at specific times in the day, for defined periods, but we need this data all the time. The provision of sustainable meteorological data at European level – what we call a “network forecast” – adapted to the aeronautical environment is vital. Accuracy, continuity and granularity of data supply shall be assured.

“The impetus behind this is not just about reducing delays but about bringing more stability into the network, reducing volatility and the threat of sector overloads and unexpected traffic.”

As a first step, NM together with EUROCONTROL's Innovation Hub in Brétigny and Eumetnet are working together to analyse the reliability of current forecasts. This will bring trust, which should reduce the need for ANSPs to apply last-minute regulations due to bad weather. If the new service can guarantee a higher level of accuracy, ANSPs and NM would be able to better plan in advance and reduce the overall impact of convective weather events into the European network.

“We would also like to improve civil-military coordination around cross-border-weather events via the Network Manager Operations Centre, and have more airports involved as well, perhaps even extending these procedures into weather-related events at airports, in the wintertime, as well as the en-route phase during summer,” said Yolanda Portillo.

Another NM development for summer 2024 will be to extend the All Together Now campaign, which gives flight dispatchers, pilots, air traffic controllers, flow management positions and airports a clear overview of the processes they should follow to ensure efficient, optimal operations.

The All Together Now campaign for 2024 involves a structural look at the five priorities and at identifying how operational staff from all stakeholder groups can contribute to working towards the network priorities.

This will be a critical part of the network performance plan for Summer 2024. NM is expecting another 5% increase in traffic this year over last year. “But that masks the real story,” said Steven Moore. “In some regions that means traffic will increase 15% or more, while in others there may be no growth at all. And capacity will continue to be constrained by the ongoing war in Ukraine and more recent disruptive events in the Red Sea. Which means that every dancer, musician etc in the ballet will have to work to their optimal level for the benefit of the network for it in turn to work at its optimal level, giving the best overall performance possible.”