As laid out in the Commission’s ReFuelEU Aviation proposal the blending obligation commences from 2025 at 2% SAF, gradually increasing to 63% in 2050. The proposal also includes a sub-obligation for synthetic aviation fuels starting in 2030 with 0.7%, and progressively getting to 28% of e-fuels in 2050. To avoid fuel tankering and carbon leakage, an obligation is also placed on aircraft operators to uplift at least 90% of the yearly fuel required at EU airports. The three scenarios present different SAF blending shares, 5% in the scenario in 2030, 10% for the High, and 4% in the Low scenario.
As noted above, this will require significant technological investment and other developments from SAF suppliers. Depending on the SAF production technology pathways, the range of SAF production costs is from €1,000/tonne to more than €4,500/tonne. SAF is today typically two to six times more expensive than kerosene. Assuming an increased demand will reduce production cost, the extra cost of a 5% SAF blending share compared to 100% kerosene is estimated to be €10 billion by 2030 in the base scenario, reaching €2.6 billion in 2030 alone.