A Concept of Operations for future skies

Air traffic management (ATM) is becoming increasingly complex. Traditional traffic volumes have returned to their steady upward trajectory following the pandemic while new airspace users above and below conventional flight levels continue to proliferate. Add in a volatile geopolitical situation, extreme weather events and staff shortages – to name but a few challenges – and the scale of the problem becomes clear.

What can be done to deal with the challenges of today and those on the horizon? CANSO’s answer to this question is the Complete Air Traffic System (CATS), a vision for our skies in 2045. All work on this project is overseen by the CATS Global Council, a unique collaboration that brings together traditional aviation stakeholders – including air navigation service providers (ANSPs), airlines, airports and aerospace manufacturers – alongside pioneers in advanced airspace solutions, nextgeneration mobility providers and technology innovators. This is the most comprehensive and collaborative effort the industry has ever undertaken. Its goal is to define solutions that benefit individual ANSPs and the broader aviation ecosystem.

The culmination of the work to date is a Concept of Operations (CONOPs) paper, a blueprint designed to guide the transformation of ATM. This document, presented at Airspace World in May, stands out for its unprecedented scope and ambition.

It is important to note that this CONOPs paper is supported by all parties and so presents a highly inclusive approach to the issues in front of us. Its short-term goals are fully aligned with the great progress being made by SESAR (Single European Sky ATM Research) and the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) NextGen project, while its longer-term vision has the buy-in of all those that will be affected by the significant transformations the CONOPs proposes.

The CATS CONOPS is structured into three phases, each addressing critical milestones on the path to a more efficient, automated and seamlessly connected airspace.

The first phase focuses on implementing today’s digital solutions, transforming how information is shared and used in airspace management. Digital data exchange, enabled by system-wide information management (SWIM) and Flight and Flow Information for a Collaborative Environment (FF-ICE), are key building blocks in this first stage and will allow for real-time coordination between ANSPs, airlines and airports.

The introduction of trajectory-based operations (TBO), meanwhile, will bring a shift from managing flights tactically to optimising them strategically, ensuring smoother, more predictable air traffic flows. Additionally, transitioning to True North as a navigational standard will eliminate inefficiencies tied to frequent recalibrations. These innovations are already being developed globally, and phase one aims to put them into widespread operational use by 2035.

Phase two marks a bold leap forward, tackling the growing complexity of air traffic management through advanced automation. Building on the digital foundations laid in phase one, this phase represents a pivotal shift, integrating automation into safety-critical ATM functions to enhance system safety, efficiency, capacity and resilience.

As airspace operations become increasingly intricate, automation will be essential to scale operations effectively. By harnessing artificial intelligence (AI), real-time data analytics and intelligent automation, phase two will revolutionise airspace management while redefining the role of humans, shifting their focus from direct control to strategic oversight in a highly optimised, data-driven environment.

Simply, our future skies are set to be so busy and complex that human management will become impossible. Rather, air traffic controllers (ATCOs) will assume more strategic roles – Strategic Airspace Managers in the terminology of the document. But don’t be fooled into thinking this means the human can step in should something go wrong. Technical expertise within this industry and lessons from other sectors reveal that this is fanciful thinking. It would be overwhelming for a human. So, automation will also be the problem solver, summed up by the idea of “graceful degradation”. This means that when a problem occurs, automated systems will revert to basic functions, ensuring complete safety every step of the way.

The final stage, phase three, envisions a truly seamless global airspace, where decision-making and conflict resolution occur through machine-to-machine communication. Airspace structures will become fully dynamic, adapting in realtime to traffic demand, while services will be provided flexibly rather than being tied to fixed geographic regions. This is the long-term vision for the industry beyond 2045, where technology will allow airspace to function as a single, optimised system rather than a patchwork of national jurisdictions.

There are approximate timelines associated with each phase. The first phase will take us up to 2035, the second phase to 2040 and the third phase will be in place from 2045 onwards. But it is the direction of travel that is critical, rather than the milestones along the way. The industry will continue to be diverse in its requirements and capabilities.

The emphasis should be placed on the unified vision. This is where all parties agree we should be heading. That is unique and it makes the CATS CONOPs a first of-a-kind document.

Will it be easy to achieve this vision? Of course not. It is an incredibly ambitious initiative and there will be multiple challenges along the way.

We know, for example, that everything we do has to be done sustainably. Fortunately for us, sustainability and optimisation amount to much the same thing. When skies are optimised, aircraft emissions are at their lowest.

ATM is a small part of aviation sustainability, but a large proportion of the emissions savings that ANSPs can achieve are available near-term. Longer-term, the amount of power consumed by data centres needs to be addressed but that isn’t a problem specific to our industry and so solutions will be found.

Finance might prove a tougher challenge. The transformations contained within the CATS CONOPs will take considerable investment – money that just isn’t in the system at the moment. And we are also facing a focus on cost efficiency in the latest Single European Sky performance targets, a question mark over SESAR funding and a similar situation at the US FAA.

Ensuring that the industry prioritises investment in ATM modernisation is essential if this vision is to become a reality.

Regulation also needs to be in lockstep with industry initiatives. There is little point in perfecting advanced autonomy only for regulators to drag their feet. Certification processes must be streamlined to allow automation and digital services to be deployed at scale. Liability structures will also need to be re-evaluated as decision-making increasingly shifts from human operators to intelligent systems.

But this is the beauty of CATS, its Global Council and its CONOPs – and where the strength of collaboration comes into play. We have representation from research and academia pointing to the possibilities and we have regulators and third parties pointing to the realities. This combination will provide the fastest, safest and most efficient way forward. Moreover, the CATS CONOPs will feed into the work being done to progress ATM, in particular at ICAO level.

The CATS CONOPs is not about predicting the future, it is about preparing for it. In such a dynamic industry, it is impossible to know what challenges ATM will face. But if every party is pulling in the same direction, then we will have a high degree of success in overcoming those challenges.

The CATS Global Council and its CONOPs vision are fully inclusive and create a unified vision for our future skies. The industry-leading Airspace World event – being held 13-15 May in Lisbon – supports this vision by bringing the industry together under one roof. Both the event and the CATS Global Council are helping to align stakeholders, ensuring that future skies are smarter, safer and more resilient than ever before.