The summer travel season has provided little reprieve from the impact of COVID-19; the situation is grim. We estimate that for 2020 air traffic (measured in revenue/ passenger/kilometres or RPKs) will be down at least 50%. This figure was based on the assumption that international traffic would pick up in the third and fourth quarters of the year, although this is looking increasingly unlikely as many key markets remain locked down, with travellers banned or subject to significant quarantine periods on arrival. The slow speed of improvement means that we now think it will be 2024 before RPKs return to 2019 levels. And this could slip further if there are setbacks in containing the virus or finding a vaccine.