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Long-Term Forecasts are published every two years. The long-term forecasts look at a range of distinct, possible scenarios for how the air traffic industry might look in 20 years time.This allows a range of ‘what if?’ questions to be explored, for factors inside the industry (e.g. the airport and airline network) or outside (e.g. the price of oil, or environmental constraints).
The Long-Term Forecasting Approach is explained in an Annex of the report. |
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| Average annual growth (Scenario C: Regulated Growth, the ‘Most-Likely’) | |
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This report presents the 2010 update of EUROCONTROL Long-Term Forecast of IFR flight movements in Europe up to 2030. It focuses on developments after 2016; traffic evolution between now and 2016 is discussed in the EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast published in September 2010. This forecast replaces the EUROCONTROL Long-Term Forecast issued in November 2008.
The forecast uses four scenarios to explore the future of the aviation and the risks that lie ahead: A: Global Growth, C: Regulated Growth, D: Fragmenting World, and E: Resource Limits. They produce different levels of traffic and follow different paths of growth according to their storylines and mix of characteristics factored into the forecast. Scenario C has been constructed as the ‘most-likely’ continuing in current trends, scenario E investigates the consequences of peak oil on aviation.
In the ‘most-likely’ scenario C of the LTF10, there will be 16.9 million IFR movements in Europe in 2030, 1.8 times more than in 2009. The range of the forecast scenarios is between 13.1 and 20.9 million flights in 2030, 1.4-2.2 times the traffic in 2009. The growth will average 1.6%-3.9% annually (2.8% in the ‘most-likely’), it will be faster in the early years, stronger in Eastern Europe and for arrivals/departures to/from outside Europe than for intra-European flights.
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Last validation: 06/01/2011
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