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Experimental Design

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To achieve maximum benefit from the simulation runs the PHARE experiments were designed such that a limited number of factors were changed between experiments. The aim was to enable statistical analysis to be carried out. The following sections describe the design of the various PHARE experiments.

PHARE Demonstration 1

For PHARE Demonstration 1 three system ‘organisations’ (ORGs) were defined: a baseline (ORG 0); ORG 1, which examined the effect of the introduction of the PHARE Advanced Tools to assist the controller in implementing the PD/1 operational concept of ‘advanced planning’; and ORG 2, which examined the effect of introducing aircraft equipped with 4-D Flight Management System (FMS) and datalink.

The objectives of the trial, namely to measure the impact of the PATs, 4-D FMS and datalink, were met by comparing the results from the various organisations whilst keeping other factors, e.g. controller role and traffic sample, the same.
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PHARE Demonstration 2

As for PHARE Demonstration 1 three system ‘organisations’ (ORGs) were defined for PHARE Demonstration 2: a baseline (ORG 0); ORG 1, which examined the effect of the introduction of the PHARE Advanced Tools to assist the controller in implementing the PHARE Demonstration 2 operational concept of ‘advanced planning’; and ORG 2, which examined the effect of introducing aircraft equipped with 4-D Flight Management System and datalink.

Two independent variables were defined in PHARE Demonstration 2: system organisation and traffic volume.

Analysis of ORG 0 against ORG 1 data focused differences due to effects of introducing computer assisted tools (PHARE Advanced Tools) and Ground Human Machine Interface. Whereas the effects of increasing proportions of 4D FMS/datalink aircraft were shown by a comparison of ORG 1 data against ORG 2/30%, and a further comparison against ORG 2/70% data.
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PHARE Demonstration 3

The PHARE Demonstration 3 real-time simulations (plural site at CENA, EEC and NLR) included two organisations, baseline and advanced, and suitably structured training exercises.

PHARE Demonstration 3 baseline exercises related to the PHARE Demonstration 1 and PHARE Demonstration 2 reference organisations. This was a “strip-less” organisation which included some basic tools to assist the controller in planning traffic through the sector and also into the approach area.

Traffic mixes were designed to include 4D Experimental Flight Management System-equipped aircraft with traffic samples ranging from a 30% to 70% ratio of 4D EFMS-equipped aircraft.

The Advanced concepts to be evaluated included:
  • human centred approach for automation;
  • multi-sector planning environment;
  • traffic organisation and 4D trajectory negotiation.
Airspace data for the reference organisation was taken from the CFMU database as of 21 June 1996.

The advanced organisation used the reference organisation data as start point but evolved in accordance with the PHARE Demonstration 3 operational concept to cater for future airspace structures.

The predicted annual traffic growth used in the PHARE Demonstration 3 demonstrations considered that by 2005 traffic would multiply by 1.5 on 1995 levels and that demand in 2020 would be multiplied again by 1.5. To cater for these traffic predictions the following series of traffic increments was defined: June 1996, 1.5x, 1.75x, 2x, 2.25x. The 2.25xJune 1996 traffic sample was not used with the Baseline system.

An initial experimental plan was defined on the basis of 14 Runs defined on the above growth hypotheses and taking into account the aircraft mix hypotheses. This plan was later further refined and adapted by the Validation Project.
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For further information

The design of the PHARE experiments is discussed in more detail in:
  Acrobat 93-70-36 Operational Experiments within PHARE3,121 Kb
  Acrobat 99-70-09 PHARE Final Report1,482 Kb
The design of the PHARE Demonstration 1 experiment is described in more detail in:
  Acrobat 96-70-24 PD1 Final Report Volume 2 Annex A Experimental Design and Methods58 Kb
The design of the PHARE Demonstration 2 experiment is described in more detail in:
  Acrobat 97-70-13 PD/2 Final Report Volume 2 Annex A Experimental Design and Methods65 Kb
The design of the PHARE Demonstration 3 experiment at CENA is described in more detail in:
  Acrobat 99-70-01 Volume 2 of PD/3 Final Report - CENA PD/3 Final Report Annex A Experimental Design and Methods69 Kb