Forecasts
STATFOR has three main forecast products:
Short-term forecasts
The short-term forecasts are good at capturing recent trends month by month and projecting these into the immediate future, up to two years ahead. Short-term forecasts are published four times a year.
Medium-term forecasts
Medium-term forecasts look seven years ahead and build on the short-term forecasts. The medium-term forecasts combine flight statistics with economic growth and with models of other important drivers in the industry such as costs, airportcapacity, passengers, load factors, aircraft size etc. The forecasts give a comprehensive picture of anticipated air traffic development in Europe.Using high- and low-growth scenarios, a likely range for growth is presented. The medium-term forecast is published in February and refreshed in September.
Long-term forecasts
Long-term forecasts are published every two years. The long-term forecasts look at a range of distinct possible scenarios for how the air traffic industry might look in 20 years time. This allows a range of ‘what if?’ questions to be explored, for factors inside the industry (e.g.the growth of small business jets,or of point-to-point traffic) or outside (e.g.the price of oil,or environmental constraints).
STATFOR publishes short-term forecasts both of flights and of service units.
Flights
Short-term forecasts are published four times a year. In 2011, they will be published end February, end May, early October and end December. In February and September, they are published as a part of the Medium-Term Forecast.
Short-term forecasts are applied to The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area (ESRA), which is designed to include as much as possible of the ECAC area for which data are available from a range of sources within the Agency (CRCO, Network Operations and STATFOR) sources.
- EUROCONTROL Forecast of Annual Number of IFR Flights (2012 - 2018) (28/02/2012)
- EUROCONTROL Short-Term Forecast, December 2011 (23/12/2011)
- EUROCONTROL Short-Term Forecast, May 2011 (20/05/2011)
- EUROCONTROL Forecast of Annual Number of IFR Flights (2011-2017). Volume 1, 16 February 2011 (pdf)
- EUROCONTROL Short-Term Forecast, December 2010 (23/12/2010) (pdf)
- EUROCONTROL Forecast of Annual Number of IFR Flights (2010-2016). 10 September 2010 (pdf)
- EUROCONTROL Short-Term Forecast, May 2010 (31/05/2010) (pdf)
- EUROCONTROL Forecast of Annual Number of IFR Flights (2010-2016). Volume 1, 24 February 2010 (pdf)
Service Units
The total service units forecasts are useful to assist the States in establishing their unit rates of route charges.
For many years, The Central Route Charge Office (CRCO) has provided a short-term forecast of total service units to all ATM stakeholders. To deliver these forecasts, CRCO has worked in close collaboration with STATFOR to better understand traffic trends and, also, to compare these forecasts with the flight forecasts.
Today, STATFOR is taking the lead and is now producing this short-term forecast of total service units for all the individual charging areas of States participating in the Multilateral Agreement. The forecast will be produced three times a year according to the schedule which can be found on CRCO's webpage.
- Service Units Forecast (February 2012)
- Service Units Forecast (Sep 2011) (pdf)
- Service Units Forecast (May 2011) (pdf)
- Service Units Forecast (February 2011) (pdf)
- Service Units Forecast (September 10) (pdf)
- Service Units Forecast (May 10) (pdf)
- Service Units Forecast (February 10) (pdf)
- Service Units Forecast (December 09) (pdf)
- Service Units Forecast (September 09) (pdf)
- Service Units Forecast (May 09) (pdf)
STATFOR publishes Medium-term forecasts both of flights and of service units.
Flights
The Medium-Term Forecasts (MTF) look seven years ahead and build on the Short-Term Forecasts.
- NEW EUROCONTROL Forecast of Annual Number of IFR Flights (2012 - 2018) 28 February 2012
- EUROCONTROL Forecast of Annual Number of IFR Flights (2011-2017). 19-September-2011
- EUROCONTROL Forecast of Annual Number of IFR Flights (2011-2017). 16-February-2011
Service Units
The forecast gives a 6-years-ahead outlook of the total service units and covers charging areas in Europe as specified in the geographical scope of the EU-wide performance target setting.
The forecast methodology combines forecasts of distance factors and weight factors with the number of flights as forecast by the Medium-Term Forecast of flights. The forecast shall serve the ATM stakeholders as an independent view of future changes in service units in Europe. It can also assist the States when establishing unit rates for route charges, and serve as a reference when assessing consistency between European Union-wide and local performance targets.
- EUROCONTROL Short- and Medium-Term Forecast of Service Units (2012 - 2017) February 2012 Update
- EUROCONTROL Short- and Medium-Term Forecast of Service Units (2011-2016) May 2011 Update (pdf)
- EUROCONTROL Short- and Medium-Term Forecast of Service Units (2011-2015). 28 February 2011 (pdf)
- EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast of Service Units (2010-2014), 10 September 2010 (pdf)
Archives
2010
- EUROCONTROL Forecast of Annual Number of IFR Flights (2010-2016). 10-September-2010 (pdf)
- EUROCONTROL Forecast of Annual Number of IFR Flights (2010-2016). Volume 1, 24-February-2010 (pdf)
- EUROCONTROL Forecast of Annual Number of IFR Flights (2010-2016). Volume 2, 24-February-2010 (pdf)
2009
- EUROCONTROL Forecast update of Annual Number of IFR Flights (2009-2015). 30 September 2009 (pdf)
- EUROCONTROL Forecast of Annual Number of IFR Flights (2009-2015). Volume 1, 25 February 2009 (pdf)
- EUROCONTROL Forecast of Annual Number of IFR Flights (2009-2015). Volume 2, 25 February 2009 (pdf)
2008
- EUROCONTROL Forecast of Annual Number of IFR Flights (2008-2014). Volume 1, 29 February 2008 (pdf)
- EUROCONTROL Forecast of Annual Number of IFR Flights (2008-2014). Volume 2, 29 February 2008 (pdf)
2007
- EUROCONTROL Forecast of Annual Number of IFR Flights (2007-2013). Volume 1, 28 February 2007 (pdf)
- EUROCONTROL Forecast of Annual Number of IFR Flights (2007-2013). Volume 2, 28 February 2007 (pdf)
2006
The Long-Term Forecasting Approach is explained in an Annex of the report.
Summary of 2010-2030 forecast
Average annual growth (Scenario C: Regulated Growth, the ‘Most-Likely’) This report presents the 2010 update of EUROCONTROL Long-Term Forecast of IFR flight movements in Europe up to 2030. It focuses on developments after 2016; traffic evolution between now and 2016 is discussed in the EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast published in September 2010. This forecast replaces the EUROCONTROL Long-Term Forecast issued in November 2008.
The forecast uses four scenarios to explore the future of the aviation and the risks that lie ahead: A: Global Growth, C: Regulated Growth, D: Fragmenting World, and E: Resource Limits. They produce different levels of traffic and follow different paths of growth according to their storylines and mix of characteristics factored into the forecast. Scenario C has been constructed as the ‘most-likely’ continuing in current trends, scenario E investigates the consequences of peak oil on aviation.
In the ‘most-likely’ scenario C of the LTF10, there will be 16.9 million IFR movements in Europe in 2030, 1.8 times more than in 2009. The range of the forecast scenarios is between 13.1 and 20.9 million flights in 2030, 1.4-2.2 times the traffic in 2009. The growth will average 1.6%-3.9% annually (2.8% in the ‘most-likely’), it will be faster in the early years, stronger in Eastern Europe and for arrivals/departures to/from outside Europe than for intra-European flights.
